Tottenham lie 17th in the Premier League’s alternative xG table

This article is part of Football FanCast’s Opinion series, which provides analysis, insight and opinion on any issue within the beautiful game, from Paul Pogba’s haircuts to League Two relegation battles…

According to Experimental361’s alternative Premier League table based on expected goals, Tottenham Hotspur lie in 17th position ahead of the visit of Watford on Saturday.

It is a sign of just how poor and perhaps fortunate Spurs have been so far this term, especially considering they currently lie in ninth position before they face the division’s bottom club at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium today.

For those who don’t know, the xG table is based upon the quality of chances both created and conceded compared to a team’s actual goal tallies.

Mauricio Pochettino’s men have scored 14 goals and let in 12 in their eight top flight fixtures to date, with their defensive record particularly eye-catching given they only conceded 26 in the entire 2016/17 campaign, for example.

According to Experimental361’s calculations according to expected goals, they would have 4.2 fewer to their name, while they would have let in 2.1 more.

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If that had been the case in a non-hypothetical world, they would be lying in 17th position and only ahead of Bournemouth, Newcastle United and Norwich City, with a measly six points to their name – relegation form, indeed.

The 10 goals they have conceded in their previous two fixtures against Bayern Munich and Brighton and Hove Albion tells you all you need to know about the north London outfit’s situation and lack of confidence right now, and these latest statistics should be a cause for concern.

To put it simply, they are allowing the opposition to create far too many clear-cut chances, and aren’t doing the same themselves.

Tottenham have clearly been slightly fortunate with the finishing of some of the teams they have come up against, and they must hope that the same situation doesn’t arise against Quique Sanchez Flores’ strugglers this afternoon.

Consistent attacking personnel and ensuring there is more protection for the defence could be two of the potential answers, as Pochettino looks to turn Spurs’ fortunes around.

Sheffield Wednesday fans laud Morgan Fox after Stoke City victory

Sheffield Wednesday moved to third in the Championship despite not being at their best against Stoke City on Tuesday night.

The game wasn’t one for the purists with just five shots on target all match, but it certainly wasn’t aided by the stop-start nature of the first half as the visitors were forced into two early substitutions because of injuries.

Massimo Luongo scored his second goal in three matches right before half-time in what turned out to be the only goal of the game.

The 27-year-old was found by Morgan Fox with a nicely-timed long ball, and he pounced on Liam Lindsay’s error to slot past the Potters’ goalkeeper.

Garry Monk has now steered his side to 14 points from a possible 21 since taking charge at the start of September as they currently sit just three points behind league leaders West Brom.

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It’s also a third clean sheet for the side with them seemingly being able to cope in the absence of skipper Tom Lees.

Fox was handed a rare start by Monk, having only featured in six Championship matches this season, and his role in the victory has drawn considerable plaudits from sections of the Hillsborough faithful.

One supporter claimed the 26-year-old shut the moaners up by playing out of his skin while another added that he was ‘as solid as a rock’ in defence.

‘Outstanding,’ ‘faultless,’ and ‘brilliant’ were just three other superlatives used to describe his performance with one even believing it was the best game he has ever had in the blue and white stripes after joining the club in January 2017.

Here’s the best of the reaction:

Man City’s kryptonite: How Dean Smith can mastermind Aston Villa victory

This article is part of Football FanCast’s Opinion series, which provides analysis, insight and opinion on any issue within the beautiful game, from Paul Pogba’s haircuts to League Two relegation battles…

Manchester City have been fairly unbreakable over the last couple of years and have barely shown any weaknesses under Pep Guardiola. Their 198 points in two Premier League seasons is unrivalled and coaches across the land have surely been exploring weaknesses to exploit, but inevitably coming up short.

However, the Citizens have shown one slight flaw in their game of late – their vulnerability in the air. The departure of Vincent Kompany naturally left a big hole in City’s defence, whilst the injuries to Aymeric Laporte and John Stones so far have caused concerns at the back.

Stones is back now, but Fernandinho’s 5ft 9 stature alongside him could be easy work for Premier League attackers to deal with in the air.

As per WhoScored, the league champions have won just 14.1 headers per game this season, putting them in 17th on that list in the league. Whilst Aston Villa are only 16th, Dean Smith’s men certainly have the capabilities to exploit this rare weakness in Guardiola’s setup.

Players such as Wesley Moraes stand at 6ft 3 and could tower over the likes of Fernandinho, should the 34-year-old step in at centre-back again. The Villa forward could strike fear into the hearts of City fans every time a cross comes in or a corner is taken with his physical presence.

It’s set pieces like this that could cause serious problems for the Citizens, as shown when they visited Goodison Park. Everton peppered City’s goal from set plays a few weeks back, and whilst this came to nothing, it showed they are there for the taking.

Per Whoscored, seven of Everton’s 12 shots came from set-pieces and six of the 12 were headed efforts on goal. Evidently, there is an aerial vulnerability to be exploited in City’s defensive unit, and that’s the weak spot Everton should be jabbing with both fists on Saturday lunchtime.

More recently, Christian Benteke came agonisingly close to scoring when his thumping header was miraculously saved by Ederson at Selhurst Park. As good as the save was, it revealed exactly how vulnerable City are from set plays.

The reigning champions’ obsession with keeping the ball on the ground and outplaying their opponents is not completely foolproof.

Smith will take his side to the Etihad Stadium with a gameplan tomorrow, and he’d be a fool if he wasn’t planning on capitalising on City’s glaring weakness by planning some cunning set-piece routines.

Exclusive: Tony Cottee outlines Everton’s two big problems this season

In an exclusive interview with Football FanCast ahead of the London Football Awards, Tony Cottee has outlined that he sees Everton’s failure to replace Romelu Lukaku’s goals and their frailty from set-pieces as their big problems this season.

This conclusion comes with the Toffees still hovering just above the relegation zone, having lost 3-2 against Brighton & Hove Albion on Saturday.

Cottee has named the two problems he feels have put Marco Silva’s side in their current predicament: “Since Lukaku left, they haven’t replaced the goals. Obviously they’ve been conceding a lot of goals from set-pieces as well. They’re the two reasons why Everton have struggled this season.”

Everton have five separate scorers in the league this season, but are struggling for someone who can get the goals to drag the team forward – Dominic Calvert-Lewin is their top scorer with three goals, as per WhoScored.

Former Everton striker Cottee’s comment about set-pieces is also backed up by the statistics, as Everton have conceded six from this type of situation, which is the most of any team in the Premier League this term.

However, he has indicated that the team can take inspiration from their victory against another of his former clubs: “If they play like they did against West Ham and show the same application and determination, then they’ll be fine and they’ll move up the league and they’ll get back in the top 10, which is obviously the minimum requirement for Everton.”

With Everton’s aspirations in mind, they will need to address these two problem areas if they are to get where they want to be in the table.

Tony Cottee was speaking as a judge on The London Football Awards, due to take place on 5th March 2020 at Camden’s Roundhouse. Tickets are available from https://

londonfootballawards.org.

Liverpool fans in awe of Mane’s tenacity after snap emerges

Having already crowned him Man of the Match on Saturday, Liverpool fans on Twitter have been lavishing even more praise upon Sadio Mane after a picture emerged showing him being kicked in the head while scoring the winning goal against Aston Villa.

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The winger nodded home from a corner late on to rescue all three points for Liverpool this weekend, but a picture emerged after the game showing that it was more than just your bog-standard header.

Indeed, Mane put his body on the line to score the late goal for his team as he was kicked in the face just moments after connecting with the ball.

While we’re sure that the kick was rather painful, Mane wouldn’t have minded as the three points will be worth so much more to him.

This is exactly the type of thing that a team needs if they’re going to become champions of England, and with the Reds five points clear at the top of the table, they’re in a good place to go on and win their first Premier League title.

Here’s what the Anfield faithful have been saying on Twitter…

Spurs vs Red Star Belgrade: The XI Pochettino should pick

Tottenham Hotspur face Red Star Belgrade in the Champions League on Wednesday in a must-win encounter.

Spurs lie second in Group B, with four points from their first three games. Red Star are only a point behind, while Olympiacos have a point to their name. Pole position Bayern Munich have won all of their first three, including a 7-2 thumping of Mauricio Pochettino’s men.

The game throws up some selection quandaries for the manager; it is not known if Jan Vertonghen or Erik Lamela will be fit, while Son Heung-Min was left distraught after the injury sustained by Andre Gomes at the weekend. Mauricio Pochettino has said that he is likely to play, however.

Thus, one has to imagine that there could be a number of changes from the XI that played Everton; Harry Kane, of course, missed that game with a virus but he faced the media on Tuesday and should be fit to feature.

Football FanCast has taken a look at how Pochettino should line up his side.

Paulo Gazzaniga will play in goal because of the injury sustained by Hugo Lloris.

While one feels Spurs would benefit from switching to a three-at-the-back formation, they may have to go with two central defenders if Vertonghen is ruled out.

In that case, Davinson Sanchez and Toby Alderweireld should play, while it feels like the time to stop the Serge Aurier experiment.

Juan Foyth played some part in the game against the Toffees and the 21-year-old deserves a chance to show that he can play in the right-back role regularly. Ben Davies ought to keep his place to ensure Danny Rose can come back in at the weekend.

In midfield, Tanguy Ndombele was excellent on Sunday, constantly driving forward with the ball and looking for a killer pass. Partnering him with the hard-running Moussa Sissoko makes sense.

Further forward, having Son in the team would be a boost considering he’s already scored three times in the Champions League this season, while Lucas Moura should play on the right for extra speed and goal threat.

Giovani Lo Celso could be the man to replace Christian Eriksen, who failed to register a single dribble or shot against Everton, but it makes more sense for it to be Dele Alli, who scored against Everton and should keep that momentum going.

Having Kane back fit answers one question instantly: he has to play up front.

Tottenham Hotspur fans laud idea of RB Leipzig’s Julian Nagelsmann replacing Mauricio Pochettino

Lots of Tottenham Hotspur fans have been lauding the idea of Julian Nagelsmann replacing Mauricio Pochettino, after Football FanCast revealed that Spurs Chairman Daniel Levy is keen on hiring the RB Leipzig boss.

Levy is not currently expected to call time on Pochettino’s tenure in North London despite the Argentine taking just one league win in nearly two months, which has left Spurs 14th in the Premier League standings and 11 points adrift of the top-four.

However, sources familiar with Tottenham’s recruitment believe that Levy is exploring what options are available should he have to take action, and is “all over” moving for Nagelsmann if things go “belly up” in North London.

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Nagelsmann only joined Leipzig this summer following three years with TSG Hoffenheim, but has guided the Red Bull-owned outfit to second in the Bundesliga table and entered the international break above Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund.

Fans would seemingly love the idea of the 32-year-old being the next man in charge of Tottenham, going by some of the reactions shared online, with one supporter suggesting the German would be the ideal candidate to take the North Londoners to the next level.

Nagelsmann clinched the German U19 Bundesliga title with Hoffenheim’s youth side in 2013/14, and later helped the first-team achieve their best top-flight finish in 2017/18 while booking a place in the following term’s Champions League.

Here are some of the messages shared from Spurs fans reacting to the idea of Levy targeting Nagelsmann as a potential successor to Pochettino…

Arsenal’s defensive problems exposed by pair of statistics

This article is part of Football FanCast’s Opinion series, which provides analysis, insight and opinion on any issue within the beautiful game, from Paul Pogba’s haircuts to League Two relegation battles…

When Arsenal trudged off the pitch following their 2-0 loss against Leicester City, there may have been people in search of someone to blame for the defeat.

Some looked towards Emery for his tactics and substitutions, while others will have found someone on the pitch to hold accountable – there may even be those who blamed Granit Xhaka.

One man who won’t have had many fingers pointed towards him is Bernd Leno, as the goalkeeper made 5 saves, catching 4 of them, and wasn’t given any chance by the clinical finishes of Jamie Vardy and James Maddison.

In fact, the German was seen as Arsenal’s best performer during the game by WhoScored, with an overall rating of 6.9.

This lack of fortune, despite a big effort, is not a one-off for Leno, as he has actually made more saves than any other goalkeeper in the Premier League so far this season, with a total of 49.

A team with aspirations of finishing in the top four should not be have a stopper who is placed under that level of pressure, and it says a lot that he is joined in the top five save-makers by Matt Ryan, Aaron Ramsdale, Ben Foster and Tim Krul.

To compound this misery, Burnley are the only side in the current top 10 to have conceded more goals than the Gunners this campaign.

A weak defence is a problem Leno has had to deal with since arriving at the Emirates, as last season, Tony Cascarino told The Times, via football.london: “I’m still unsure about Bernd Leno, the goalkeeper, too, but I feel sorry for him when you consider the lack of quality in front of him.”

This came during a campaign in which the Arsenal goalkeeper looked devoid of confidence, making 5 errors that led to goals in all.

The stats indicate that the 27-year-old’s performances have improved since that quote, and now it’s time for those in front of him to offer starker protection to his goal.

It’s damning for Unai Emery that Leno has made the most saves in the league and yet they’re still conceded the second highest number of goals in the top ten.

He’s got big problems to resolve at the club, and the defensive stats hint where his priority should lie.

Liverpool: Fans demand that James Milner is offered a new deal

Liverpool fans have been pleaded for James Milner to be handed an extension to his current contract.

The 33-year-old was a critical part of the Reds’ first Champions League win in 14 years and their sixth European crown of the club’s history.

Milner made the move to Anfield from Manchester City on a free transfer under the Brendan Rodgers regime and has become of one Jurgen Klopp’s most prized assets.

He recently received praise from former Manchester United defender Patrice Evra, who said that he was the “hardest” player that he ever faced. The former England international has now clocked up 193 appearances for the Reds, scoring 25 goals and providing 39 assists during that time.

Supporters begged the club to offer Milner a new deal and made their feelings clear on social media.

Here you will find some of the best comments from Liverpool fans:

West Ham’s players can take note from Declan Rice

This article is part of Football FanCast’s The Chalkboard series, which provides a tactical insight into teams, players, managers, potential signings and more…

Declan Rice enjoyed a promising showing as West Ham United fell to a 3-2 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur on Saturday.

On the chalkboard

The England international was partnered with Mark Noble in central midfield and, although his side were beaten, he was perhaps one of his side’s very best performers on the day.

Per WhoScored, he had 61 touches of the ball and registered an impressive 93% passing accuracy, the joint-highest of any player on either side to start the game.

Rice also completed two dribbles, was never dribbled past, won two tackles and also made four interceptions.

Throughout the game, he sat deep, mopping up loose balls and recycling possession accurately and efficiently.

While he was dispossessed twice, this was an excellent performance from a player who appears to be growing in stature at the Hammers.

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Need more like him

West Ham are on a terrible run of form.

They have now gone seven league games without a win and one has to ask questions as to whether manager Manuel Pellegrini will be able to stay in his job for the next week; their next fixture sees them take on Frank Lampard’s Chelsea.

However, the talent is there, as evidenced by Rice’s display.

Indeed, if more players in the Hammers side were as good as the England international, perhaps they wouldn’t be in the mess they’re in.

He showed again on Saturday that he can make a genuine difference against top-six teams in the Premier League.

Spurs, of course, have been poor this season but they have a stature befitting that moniker and Rice did not look at all out of place.

A few of his team-mates ought to take note.

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